Feature of the Week
Considering this was inauguration week, let’s go to the page with excerpts from one of the greatest inauguration addresses, that of Abraham Lincoln. Abe Speaks. It also has a drawing I’m particularly pleased with. I did it on a cruise, a fond memory in the middle of this weekend’s blizzard!
01.22.05 @ 06:21 PM EDT [link]

Kicking off the Crusades
Here is an excerpt from the translation from the Latin of the Encyclical by Pope Urban II proclaiming the Crusades. These lasted hundreds of years and resulted in enormous death and misery. They were ultimately futile, considering that the Holy Land remained in Muslim hands. Here it is: “We have seen our vulnerability - and we have seen its deepest source. For as long as whole regions of the world simmer in heathenism – prone to apostate ideologies - violence will gather, and multiply in destructive power, and cross the most defended borders, and raise a mortal threat. There is only one force of history that can break the reign of pagans, and expose the pretensions of heretics, and reward the hopes of the faithful, and that is the force of Christianity. We are led, by events and common sense, to one conclusion: The survival of Christianity in our lands increasingly depends on the success of Christianity in other lands. The best hope for faith in our world is the expansion of Christianity in all the world. The great objective of ending heathenism is the concentrated work of generations. The difficulty of the task is no excuse for avoiding it. Christianity's influence is not unlimited, but fortunately for the faithful, Christianity's influence is considerable, and we will use it confidently in the cause of Godliness.” OK, this wasn’t actually written by Urban – It’s an excerpt from Bush’s Inaugural Address, switching a few of the words. Funny how few words had to be tweaked.
01.21.05 @ 10:28 PM EDT [link]

Inaugural Ball Game
People who say that inauguration money is better spent don’t understand the balls well enough. What they actually are is a gigantic climax and new beginning for the fundraising that was Bush’s major activity in office (as measured by percentage of time spent, if you don’t count vacation). Here’s a funny story to illustrate the point. Scene: Bush inaugural ball in the expansive ballroom of an opulent mansion.
“Thank you all for coming, and thank you for your contributions to my
campaign. We have big plans to make the next term even more successful than the first, and I'm sure you will all continue do your part to make that possible. Finally, I have a personal message for Jonesie. Karl’s got a special surprise for him. Thank you all, and God Bless America!”
“Oh, oh,” muttered Karl to Dick Cheney beside him. “We've got a problem. There are three Joneses in the crowd tonight!”
Sure enough, Jones #1 is already making a beeline towards Karl.
"Big Sugar is grateful to the President and particularly to you, Karl, for
coming through for us again. With the government's fiscal crisis we were worried that the Libs would finally knock out our subsidy.”
"Uh, sorry Bob, but it wasn't you. But don't worry, we recognize the
historical role that Big Sugar has played for America, dating back before there even was a United States. Had it not been for Big Sugar’s influence in Parliament, there wouldn’t have been a Molasses Act favoring Jamaican cane over the Colonies’ molasses, and without that provocation there might well not have been a Revolution. So in a very real sense we all owe Big Sugar a big debt of gratitude for our very liberties!”
“Wow, Karl, I’d heard that you were a history buff but I had no idea! We at Big Sugar are of course proud of the role that we have played over the centuries in protecting agriculture.”
“Thanks for your continued support, Bob, particularly your generous contributions to our effort. You won’t be sorry. Could you excuse me for a moment, I need to speak with Tom.”
“Hi Karl, I have to assume that you got WMD Omega through the Committee.”
“Sorry, Tom. We have a case of mistaken identity here, but rest assured that Omega is at the top of our list.”
“You guys didn’t give away so much money in tax cuts that there’s nothing left for security, did you?”
“Of course not, Tom. Those cuts were needed to starve the Beast. Military spending won’t be affected. It’s the very basis for our liberties! In fact, you can expect another boost. We’ll still be beating the drums for tax cuts, of course. We need to maintain our fundraising edge over the Libs. But 9/11 will be right up there too. Could you excuse me, I need to speak with Charlie Jones here.”
“Karl! You can’t believe my joy in hearing not only that our faith-based program was approved, but particularly that the President has honored me with a nickname! I’m deeply moved!”
“Sorry, Charlie. It was someone else. But you know that your program is at the top of the President’s agenda. It’s a real win-win for all of us. Not only does it put the government firmly on the bedrock of observant Christian morality that is the very basis for our liberties, but also diverts money from Liberal government bureaucrats who want to waste it on social experiments. Church-based charity has stood the test of time for over a thousand years. You can’t go wrong with such a proven system! And don’t worry, I’ll talk to the President. I’m sure he’s given you a nickname and just hasn’t shared it with me yet.”
“Thanks, Karl, I’d be deeply grateful. I’ll make sure the Coalition makes you and the President grateful too!”
As the crowd thins out, an elderly gentleman in a smoking jacket approaches. He has a pipe in one hand and the leash to a scotch terrier in the other.
“How was the take, Karl?”
“Excellent, Sir, as always when we do it here. Thanks again for the use of your place.”
“Always a pleasure, Karl. So you have a surprise?”
“Yes, Sir, right here.”
As Karl reaches into his pocket, the dog suddenly rises on its hindquarters and yaps twice as he sees the dog biscuit emerge from Karl’s pocket.
“Good dog, Jonesie!” Here you go, Boy!”
01.19.05 @ 08:17 PM EDT [link]

Priority Disorder
Here’s a cool story about how I got to work today. There’s even a public policy twist ending, so don’t become discouraged if you’re looking for yet another way that the Right Wing has its priorities screwed up. The story is so cool it’s frigid, specifically with temperatures in the teens with wind chill below zero. Just in the short walk from my car to the waiting room my teeth started chattering! Admittedly as a Florida Boy I have thin blood, but I was still bundled up pretty well, seemingly to no avail. In any case, I got on the train and got through the normal routine of getting the site ready for tomorrow. We were about halfway through the last leg of the trip when the train slowed to a stop. Nothing to pay much attention to, considering that a train loaded with, say, assorted paper products, has priority over passenger trains filled to the brim. This bizarre situation occurs because Conrail owns the tracks and thus dictates the priorities, so getting held at a stop signal is pretty routine. The stop drug on longer than usual, though. Then came the fateful PA announcement from the conductor: “The train has a broken axle and there’s no way we can continue. I have been told to disembark the train.” This caused a certain bit of consternation, considering that it was FREAKING COLD so that walking down the tracks didn’t seem particularly appealing. There was also a very steep grade to either side, which had us all picturing a particularly strong icy gust blowing us over the edge. Getting no additional info for the next hour didn’t help matters. This turned out to be our lucky day, however, since by blind chance the last car had a door that opened up to the very end of a platform on one of the intermediate stations that our express normally bypassed. Thus, we were able to walk the length of the train, exit onto a platform, and board the next scheduled train on our route. To add insult to injury, when this packed train arrived to make the connection to NYC, the connecting train shut its doors right in our faces (don’t they talk?). So what’s all this have to do with public policy? Mostly it’s the irony of the Wall Street types riding that train who uniformly vote for Republicans who rail against government spending of any kind (pun not intended, but I’ll take it), yet suffer personal consequences when government operations like mass transit are starved over the course of decades. And I heard that ours was not the only train to die today. Meanwhile, we traveled right by the mega highway project where the government is spending billions adding additional SUV lanes. OK, they’re not specifically for SUV’s but I bet the politicians who committed to doing those expansions were pandering to people in SUVs. Do we really need to be spending billions to encourage yet more people to drive into NYC during rush hour while at the same time undermining the alternative, so that people become even more encouraged to drive in during rush hour? A rhetorical question if I’ve ever seen one!
01.18.05 @ 08:24 PM EDT [link]

Half Right can be Half Assed
Bush is half right on investments. Actually it’s a lot less than half, but for this crowd being even a little right (as opposed to Right) is a welcome change of pace. Let’s talk about the right part first. He wants to invest at least some Social Security Tax revenues in investments other than government securities. OK, that’s the end of the right part. His objection to the current setup has nothing to do with the morality of intergenerational transfers (as if he’d be interested in any form of morality not involving a zipper!) For example, he’s totally uninterested in Clinton’s approach to saving Social Security – paying down the national debt so that the upcoming generation at least had a clean slate for dealing with the large number of Boomer retirees. Clinton’s approach required raising taxes, something that Bush may be opposed to in some circumstances. (That’s a weak joke, of course. Bush is opposed to any increase in any circumstances). Of course, no member of his party in Congress (nope, not a one) has voted for a tax increase since 1990, so Bush is hardly out of the GOP mainstream. The result is that the debt that upcoming generations face has skyrocketed, clearly exacerbating the fiscal situation they will face. Neither will Bush be doing anything different with the Social Security Trust Fund, other than for the proportion he wants to go to individual accounts. The remainder will continue to go into government bonds, the IOMe’s we talked about yesterday. What he wants to do with the rest is to advance retirees their money, but in an account they won’t be able to get to. Where is this advance coming from? The usual Bushonomics revenue source – borrowing. So let’s make sure we’ve got this straight. The upcoming generation will be strapped for paying retirement benefits because of all the borrowing we’ve been doing for the last two decades, so we’re going to deal with it by (drum roll) accelerating the borrowing! Enough of these obviously half-assed Bushie schemes! Let’s get back to reality. Here’s what we need to do to ensure Social Security is protected. First, we need to start running a surplus sufficient to eliminate the $7 Trillion debt by the time the Boomers start retiring. While that will be a burden, my take is that we should have thought of that while we were running up that debt in the first place. Also, we should immediately stop the practice of investing surplus Social Security revenues in government bonds. Instead, we create a monster fund consisting of stocks from all US corporations in proportion to their domestic revenues. This is very similar to investing in an index fund. It has the advantage of requiring virtually no management fees. It will be in bulk – no individual accounts. Bulk investments are vastly more efficient, are less risky that individual stock picking, and are closer to the original purpose of Social Security as a hedge against senior poverty as opposed to the kind of super-entitlement that an individual account implies.
01.17.05 @ 08:31 PM EDT [link]

Writing IOMe’s
I have to thank the Bush Administration for bringing the issue of Social Security futures to the fore. I’ve been writing about it for years, but it’s only since it became a front-burner Bush priority has the topic been getting any play in the media. Amazingly enough, at least one of the suggestions the Bush gang has been making is actually helpful. Of course, the helpful part is a relatively small proportion of what they want to do, and their plans, if implemented in their totality, would tremendously undermine the program. I don’t want that last statement to be a bald assertion, so I’ll be devoting some time to pointing out exactly where they’re going wrong. Let’s begin by boiling the problem with Social Security to a single statement. It’s a pretty simple one: we’re lining up the upcoming generation to be hit with per capita financial commitments far beyond those faced by the current generation. There are two reasons for the increase in burden. The first reason is structural: the Baby Boom generation has more members than other generations. Since they are in their peak earning years, there currently is a historically low per capita burden to support current retirees. It also means that when the Boomers retire, supporting their larger number of retirees with a smaller number of workers means a larger per capita burden on those workers. The second reason that the per capita burden will increase for upcoming generations is the greed of current generations, who have artificially reduced their own per capita burden even while increasing per capita spending on government services. This greed is manifested in two ways. First, the current generation has run up a national debt equal to about four years worth of federal spending, a direct shifting of expenses to future generations. Second, we have taken the money that was created to ensure that Social Security did not become a burden for future generations – the Social Security Trust Fund – and used it as a nifty additional source of free money to cover current government expenses. What’s passed to future generations is not any money at all, but, heinously, the legal commitment to raise whatever taxes are needed to cover the principal and interest payments on the Fund. The good news is that boiling all of this down to essential issues makes solutions all the more apparent. For example, it makes it easier to understand why one idea that the Bush Administration has been pushing that has some merit. This is the idea of investing in something other than government bonds. That’s pretty much where the validity of their proposals ends. We need to get away from the US government buying US government bonds because it’s not a real investment when done that way. Here’s an analogy. Let’s say I want to save for retirement. I calculate that to have the nest egg I need I’ll have to put away $1,000 a month. I set up an automatic deduction to put this money into a special account. OK so far, right? Then let’s say I want to put my money to work by investing it. Still OK. But the government invests by issuing bonds to itself. This is exactly the same as me writing out an IOU to my future self promising to pay myself all the money in my account, plus interest. Then I go out and spend the money in the account on a cool flat screen TV. Next month I buy a sofa. This monthly pattern repeats for a couple of decades until I’m ready to retire. What do I do? I walk over to the drawer that's bulging with those IOUs. No money there, but at least I’ll have the memories of all the cool stuff I bought. Great retirement, right? Tomorrow let’s talk about the obvious solution and why that solution is pretty much the opposite of what the Bushies are proposing.
01.16.05 @ 07:27 PM EDT [link]